根据一项新的行业预测,到2035年,加拿大的石油总产量应该增加到每天560万桶 – 比2017年增加33%。
根据加拿大石油生产商协会(CAPP)的报告,预计产量上升的主要原因是油砂产量增加 – 从270万桶/日增加到420万桶/日 – 即使产量减少 在油砂资本支出连续第四年。但CAPP的预测在卡尔加里全球石油展的开幕日发布,预计到2035年的常规产量将保持平稳 – 从2017年的132万桶/日增至133万桶/日。
预计加拿大西部的产量将占该国总产量的大部分,约为95%。
工业集团确定了加拿大西部沉积盆地Montney和Duvernay地层的最大增长潜力,预计到2026年该地区将形成约500,000 b / d的戊烷和凝析油。
“根据年度预测,在加拿大东部,到2025年,包括希伯伦,Hibernia,Terra Nova和White Rose在内的主要海上项目的石油产量将上升至290,000 b / d。
“随着该地区最新的生产项目的增加,希伯伦将占据从现在到2025年的大部分产量高点,到2025年,到2035年,产量将下降到70000桶/天。”
CAPP的报告还着眼于未来几年该行业面临的一系列挑战。
该组织表示,争取建立主要管道的斗争,国家的监管政策以及与省和联邦气候变化政策有关的不确定性以及一系列取消的项目,都对投资者对加拿大能源部门的信心产生了负面影响。
“如果加拿大需要增加150万桶原油(b / d)的石油和到2035年的产量增长到新的新兴市场,那么它需要提高竞争力并建立管道。”
“缺乏竞争力仍然是加拿大在吸引外国投资方面遇到的最大障碍之一。”
然而,CAPP主席Tim McMillan在全球石油展上向观众们表示,他支持联邦政府为推进Trans Mountain管道扩张的发展而采取的措施。

Canada’s total oil production should increase to 5.6 million barrels per day by 2035 — a 33-per-cent increase over 2017 levels, according to a new industry forecast.

According to a report from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), the rise in production is expected to be driven largely by an increase in oilsands production — to 4.2 million b/d from 2.7 million b/d — even with a decrease in capital spending in the oilsands for the fourth consecutive year.

But CAPP’s forecast, released on the opening day of the Global Petroleum Show in Calgary, expects conventional production through 2035 will remain flat — rising to 1.33 million b/d from 1.32 million b/d in 2017.
Western Canada production is anticipated to account for the bulk of the country’s total production, roughly 95 per cent.

The industry group identified the greatest potential for growth in the Montney and Duvernay formations in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, which are expected to contribute about 500,000 b/d of pentanes and condensates by 2026.

“In Eastern Canada, oil production will rise to 290,000 b/d by 2025 from major offshore projects including Hebron, Hibernia, Terra Nova, and White Rose,” according to the annual forecast.

“Hebron will account for the bulk of the production highs between now and 2025 as the region’s newest producing project ramps up. Beyond 2025, production will drop to 70,000 b/d by 2035.”

CAPP’s report also takes aim at a number of challenges it sees for the industry in the years ahead.

The group says the struggle to get major pipelines built, the country’s regulatory policies, and uncertainty related to provincial and federal climate change policies, as well as a series of cancelled projects, have had a negative impact on investor confidence in Canada’s energy sector.
“Canada needs to improve its competitiveness and get pipelines built if it wants to transport an additional 1.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of oilsands production growth by 2035 to new emerging markets,” it says.

“A lack of competitiveness continues to be one of Canada’s biggest impediments when it comes to attracting foreign investment.”

However, CAPP president Tim McMillan told an audience at the Global Petroleum Show that he supports the steps that the federal government took to push ahead development of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.